Public asked to take part in new online ‘uncertainty’ research
Public asked to take part in new online ‘uncertainty’ research
Researchers at Queen’s University Belfast are asking for 300 volunteers to take part in an experiment aimed at improving people’s ability to make better decisions.
Staff from Queen’s University Management School (QUMS), are inviting volunteers to try a new World of Uncertainty quiz game online or in an experimental group.
The researchers are hoping the new game, available at http://quiz.worldofuncertainty.org will help individuals improve the skills needed in decision making by asking them to deliberate carefully about their 'true uncertainty' and attempt to quantify it honestly and accurately.
The World of Uncertainty game is being tested by PhD student Jyldyz Tabyldy kyzy, under the supervision of Dr David Newman. Explaining about the new experiment, Dr Newman said: “We all face a range of decisions everyday. A single question underlines all of these decisions and that is ‘How sure am I?’ We hope this new research and online experiment will allow participants to increase their accuracy on a range of questions and answers, and train in how to quantify their confidence.
“This project aims to get people who are involved in decision making to understand uncertainty as often our decisions can be distorted by our natural instinct to believe in stories. Instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty, it is our objective to explore it and look at how it can be handled with the aplomb of a bookmaker or a volcanologist forecasting ash clouds. We also hope the concept will be further developed by games manufacturers in the future.”
Jyldyz Tabyldy kyzy hopes that as many people as possible will register online and enjoy the game in their spare time. She explained: “We really want players to play the game regularly and come back often to track their performance, as by doing so, they will contribute greatly to the research.
“We want to find out how well the game trains people to handle uncertainty better - whether they are experienced decision makers, risk experts, or students. Also, we would like to talk to teachers and trainers about involving their students. The results can add to the formal evaluation and even shed more light on a student’s grasp of their course.”
Queen’s University Management School is also looking for up to three groups of trainees or students to test the game in their classes
